A Shifting Landscape: The Realignment of College Football’s Pac-12 and Its Ripple Effects on Group of Five Leagues
The world of college sports, especially football, has been in a state of flux over the past year, with seismic shifts occurring within conferences, most notably the Pac-12. As television contracts, revenue distribution, and brand visibility become paramount, a significant number of programs have chosen to leave the Pac-12, reshaping the landscape of college athletics.
The Decline of the Pac-12
As of the latest headlines, the Pac-12 has lost several high-profile teams to more lucrative conferences, including USC and UCLA to the Big Ten, and Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah to the Big 12. Similarly, Cal and Stanford have opted for a spot in the ACC. This mass exodus has left the Pac-12 in a precarious position, primarily supported by just Oregon State and Washington State, now humorously referred to as the "Pac-2."
Negotiations and recruitment have ensued among remaining schools, including movements led by Mountain West teams. Onlookers wonder how these changes will reverberate through the broader college football hierarchy, particularly affecting the Group of Five (G5) leagues.
The Path Forward: New Members for the Pac-12
In a fresh twist for the Pac-12, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State, and San Diego State recently announced their move to join the conference starting in the 2026 season. This strategic addition aims to reinforce the Pac-12’s standing and potentially reestablish a significant media deal upon their arrival. Interestingly, Gonzaga is also slated to join but for all sports except football.
As this new assembly takes shape, it raises vital questions about what becomes of the Mountain West, which will lose some of its premier programs. The Mountain West must now reevaluate its future and identify schools willing to fill the void left by those departing.
AAC Programs Recommit: A Setback for the Pac-12
While the Pac-12 sought new members to plug its growing gaps, the American Athletic Conference (AAC) has seen its own schools recommit. Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and UTSA recently confirmed their desire to stay in the AAC, significantly thwarting the Pac-12’s expansion ambitions. Each of these programs boasts appealing markets and proven competitiveness, making them desirable targets for any aspiring conference.
This outcome not only complicates the Pac-12’s plans but also brings up the question of who will fill the ranks if further departures occur. Stability appears to be a rare commodity in these times of upheaval.
Mountain West Loyalty: UNLV and Air Force Stand Firm
As the Pac-12 rummages through potential additions, UNLV and Air Force have also indicated their intention to remain within the Mountain West. Both programs considered multiple options, including a potential move to the AAC, but have ultimately decided to fortify their existing conference.
The loyalty displayed by these schools reflects the uncertainty clouding collegiate sports as conferences jockey for power and prestige. Stability can be lucrative, and the Mountain West now seeks to attract others to shore up its numbers.
Legal Battles on the Horizon: The Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
As if the situation wasn’t complicated enough, tension between the Pac-12 and Mountain West has led to litigation. The Pac-12 has reportedly filed a lawsuit against the Mountain West, referencing poaching penalties that could exceed $50 million. This hefty fine relates to the scheduled agreement that resulted from a desperate restructuring attempt after most of the Pac-12 schools announced their departures.
The argument rests on whether this agreement was a product of antitrust issues, as a full-fledged Pac-12 was left scrambling to maintain a competitive balance. Legal battles in collegiate athletics, often rife with nuance, carve new paths for future discussions.
Scheduling Uncertainty: A New Era Begins
With Oregon State and Washington State as the lone members of the Pac-12, they entered a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West to cover the 2024 season. However, due to the uncertainty regarding their future in a diluted conference, both schools will not be able to compete for a Mountain West Championship, illustrating a precarious balancing act in the college football landscape.
NCAA’s Changing Landscape: A Shift in the College Football Playoff
Another significant factor at play is the evolving structure of the College Football Playoff (CFP). The CFP agreed to a new format that allows for five conference champions along with seven at-large teams, which may benefit the G5 programs. While this allows for at least one G5 team to secure a playoff spot, it also signals a reduced guarantee for representation compared to previous seasons when more spots were allocated for conferences.
With the current transformation of conferences, it remains crucial for G5 teams to position themselves effectively to seize potential opportunities amid the shifting landscape.
The Ongoing Game: Future of the ACC
The ACC is not without its own instability as notable programs like Clemson and Florida State have questioned the financial viability of their conference. Clemson and FSU have filed lawsuits regarding the conference’s revenue-sharing structure, seeking to challenge agreements that might bolster their exit strategy from a league that may not prioritize their aspirations. As the power dynamics fluctuate, the potential fallout could impact the G5 leagues as they seek to attract displaced programs.
The AAC’s Hesitation on Pac-12 Additions
Despite initial explorations, the AAC has cooled its interest in adding remaining Pac-12 teams. This hesitance reflects a broader concern among G5 leagues about committing to teams from a once-prosperous powerhouse conference that is now in considerable disarray. Retaining a self-footprint remains vital, and AAC’s leadership aims to preserve its reputation without succumbing to the chaos unfolding in the Pac-12.
The Importance of G5 Representation
Though discussions swirl around the status of major conferences, G5 leagues fight to remain relevant in an increasingly stratified college football world. Stability within these leagues could serve as the backbone for talented programs hoping to make a name for themselves in a landscape dominated by the SEC, Big Ten, and other autonomous leagues.
As the dust settles on the recent shakeups and potential litigations, the future of college football remains uncertain, with every turn potentially shaping the developmental narrative for years to come. Each conference maneuver has consequences, not just for the teams involved, but for the entirety of college athletics. The quest for revenue, visibility, and competition seems destined to redefine what we understand college football to be in this era of rapid change.
